WY Caucus prediction
Submitted by akreider on Fri, 04/08/2016 - 17:50.
Using my county-level model and a caucus model (excludes the primaries), which has a much smaller standard error than when I combine primaries with caucuses - I am predicting WY - Sanders: 70.5% / Clinton 29.5% (of the Clinton + Sanders vote).
I am hoping that this will be within 2-3 percent of the final result, but no guarantees. My WI forecast was off by 5.85%.
This is based on race, income, age, sex, old FB like data (could be an issue), education, density, and past election results. It also includes Google Search trends for the last 7 days (the latest 7 days possible).
This is a significant change from my previous prediction of Sanders 76%. The major change is the addition of the Google Search trends.
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Very bad prediction
So the prediction was very wrong. Actual vote was 57.3% Sanders according to CrowdSourcingDemocracy (an interesting project which had more detailed results than NYT)
70.5 - 57.3 = 13.2% error.
I've heard some stories that Clinton had a huge number of absentee ballots, but so far haven't found a reliable source for this. With 5200 voters, a thousand absentee votes could have a huge impact.
There weren't any polls and only a handful of enthusiasts were making predictions. For instance, Tyler Pedigo had Sanders at 74.6%.
The PredictIt betting market had Sanders at a 98% chance of winning by election day. So they clearly were expecting a landslide of 60/40 or better (allowing for a high standard error due to the lack of polling).