Democratic Primary - State Model and Data Release
I decided to create a state level model for predicting the 2016 Democratic nomination race.
So I've aggregated my county level data into state level variables. I also added election results for WY (actual votes - from http://www.crowdsourcingdemocracy.org), KS, and AK (state delegates).
Note the election results for WA are legislative district delegates, and for ME they are state delegates - not popular vote.
My various state models give different results for NY. I've got Sanders at anywhere from 33% to 46%.
Download
State level data CSV
Note: ignore the 2000 vote totals as they are improperly aggregated. The education data is also a bit inaccurate as I aggregated it assuming that the adult population of all the counties was equal. But in general, I haven't found education to be significant when using such a small data set of states (whereas it is significant in my county model).
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