Predicting Election Results on Election Night

I think it might be possible to create a website for election night that uses previous election results and the incoming election night tally to accurately predict who will win (and vote percents).

The key is to use data from previous election nights. You want to know how many votes each party had every minute (or every 5 minutes). You can use this combined with where the votes are coming from (probably county level resolution is the best we could get) to accurately predict who is going to win.

The website would need to scrape other websites to get the incoming election results. It would have to be very fast, as you want to do pull off an estimate within 5 minutes or less.

In the past US midterm election we saw how an early lead can be meaningless. In the PA senate race, the Democrat has a ten point lead due to the faster reporting by Philadelphia and it was slowly whittled down until the Republican won.

One big advantage of this website is that it could be the best open source for predicting who is winning. The media has its own prediction tools, but they only call races where they have a 95% or more degree of certainty. By contrast, this website could be churning out fresh predictions every five minutes.

Does anyone have voting data in a time series for election nights? If not, you could scrape it on an election night and then build the website for the next election.